As Ottawa’s 2010 municipal election race starts to gear up, here’s a question.
What are the chances that Alex Cullen is Ottawa’s Ralph Nader?
A smart, principled man blind to the possibilities that his candidacy makes the least attractive option for the majority of Ottawans more likely to happen?
Here’s the thinking. Larry O’Brien will soon announce he wants another term as mayor. He’ll tell us he’s got unfinished business to tend to at city hall, and he needs another term to get it done.
Accurately reading the tea leaves that there’s a large “anybody but Larry” feeling across the city that he can exploit, Ottawa West-Nepean MPP Jim Watson will enter the fray. His entrance will likely keep others who are reported to have interest – like Peter Hume and Diane Deans – out of the race.
But for Ottawans with a progressive bent neither Watson or O’Brien are great choices. Both come from the centre-right.. Watson is perhaps – just perhaps – more centre than right, while O’Brien is more right than centre.
Mayor Jim Watson would mean a significant shift in style at city hall. But one of the early unanswered questions about Watson’s candidacy – should he decide to go – is just how different on substance would he be from O’Brien?
It’s an important question because my sense is that Watson’s not all that uncomfortable with the substance of O’Brien’s message – that city hall is big and bloated, and could run much more efficiently than it does. When it comes to substance, I’m not sure Jim Watson is the anti-Larry.
I suspect many of the people pressing Watson to run are just fine with that. They’re looking for someone they think represents a much more attractive message delivery system than the guy who currently occupies the mayor’s chair. Watson may be it.
And Watson is a credible enough candidate, and a smart enough politician, to draw support from across the political spectrum. But it will be interesting if he does decide to run to listen to how he crafts his message. If he presents himself as the anti-Larry on style, but not substance, there will be room there for Alex Cullen to present a different vision of city hall, and what it can do.
And that vision will get support, especially in the old city of Ottawa. How much support it gets could determine the outcome of the next race for mayor.
It’s early days yet. I realize I’m getting way ahead of myself.
I want to make it clear that I don’t think Alex Cullen is Ralph Nader.
The race for mayor needs him – or someone like him – in it. He brings a perspective to the contest that the voters need to hear as they make their decision on who is best placed to lead this city.
But his presence does make what will be a terrifically compelling municipal election campaign in 2010, even more interesting. If he’s got staying power, and can find a message that resonates, it won’t be Larry O’Brien he’ll be taking votes away from. And if Jim Watson is seriously thinking of running, he needs to give that some consideration when it comes to crafting his message on why he wants to be mayor.
